212 Cartwheel Bend #135 — Sale & Lease CMA

Comparative Market Analysis
212 Cartwheel Bend #135 — The Vineyards at Rough Hollow
Prepared for Sally Kim | Foreman Property Group · eXp Realty Luxury
Sale & Lease Strategy — July 2026
A dual-track analysis: what the market will pay to buy, and what it will pay to lease — with a clear-eyed read on the backyard and how it moves both numbers.
The Property at a Glance
212 Cartwheel Bend #135 — a 2017 Village Builders residence in the lock-and-leave section of The Vineyards at Rough Hollow.
Size & Layout
3 bedrooms · 2.5 baths · 1,736 sq ft · two-story · 2-car garage
Community & Location
HOA $525/mo · Lake Travis ISD · 25 minutes to downtown Austin
Purchase History
Purchased December 2020 at $380,000 — 110 days on market, closed 5% under original list
View Status
No view — the open outlook at purchase has since been built out (see next slide)
Without a view to set it apart, this unit competes head-to-head on price, condition, and presentation. The strategy below is built around that reality.
The Section Has Changed Since 2020
Two shifts have occurred since Sally purchased — both material to how we price and position.
The View Is Gone
At purchase there was no rear neighbor and an open outlook. A home has since been built behind the unit, closing off that outlook. The premium that helped justify the 2020 price no longer exists — the unit now prices as a no-view interior condo.
The Drainage Problem
The right-side neighbor regraded their yard. Stormwater and silt now track across the subject's rear yard, which is why replacement turf has struggled to establish. The cause is external and documentable — important for both disclosure and buyer conversations.
Neither issue is disqualifying. Both are manageable with the right presentation and pricing discipline.
The Backyard: The Single Most Important Lever
The rear yard, as it sits, places the home in the bottom tier on presentation. In a lock-and-leave section this dense with direct competition, and with no view to fall back on, that is the one thing we cannot carry into the market.
Recommendation: install new sod before going live — for sale or for lease.
Cost is modest (low single-thousands); the discount a distressed-looking yard invites is materially larger.
A clean, green yard moves the home from "needs work" to "move-in ready" in the buyer's first thirty seconds.
One honest caveat: because the adjacent regrade continues to push runoff and silt across the yard, sod alone may not hold long-term without a drainage correction (a shallow swale or French drain to redirect the neighbor's water). We recommend sod now to compete; we advise Sally that a drainage fix is what makes it permanent.
The Comparable Set — How We Selected
We benchmarked against the tightest possible set: 3-bedroom units in The Vineyards / Rough Hollow lock-and-leave section, in the subject's size band (roughly 1,700–1,850 sq ft), separating what has closed from what is currently competing.
Closed Sales
Tell us what buyers have paid. These establish the ceiling and the floor of what the market has actually accepted.
Active Listings
Tell us what the subject must beat to sell. In this market, actives govern the entry price — not closeds.
The Near-Twin
We flagged the one near-identical unit that removes most of the guesswork — same size, same vintage, same no-view position.
Closed Comparable Sales
Recent closings, subject size band (3 bed, ~1,700–1,840 sq ft):
The four view units cleared $460,000–$469,000. The one no-view closing (433 #89) landed at $454,500 — but it is a 2022 build. Our 2017 unit is older and, critically, is still being weighed against a much softer active market.
Active Competition — What We Have to Beat
Current active and pending inventory, comparable tier:
Within the subject's size band, active list prices run $399,900–$455,000 — but the only true apples-to-apples match is the no-view 2017 twin, and it is clearing at $399,900.
The Bellwether: The Near-Twin at 206 Cartwheel Bend #138
One active comp removes the guesswork — because it is, effectively, this unit.
Identical Profile
Same size (1,720 sf), same 2017 vintage, same builder era, same section, and the same no-view position.
The Hard Road to Contract
It went under contract at $399,900 — but only after cutting from $460,000 and sitting 123 days.
No Differentiator
There is no view differentiating the subject from it. If anything, the subject's yard condition is a point against, not for.
Read: the market cleared the identical no-view unit at ~$400,000, and made it work hard to get there. That number is the subject's anchor — not a floor we can price above.
Pricing Strategy — The 25% Discipline
Our standard in this market: to sell efficiently, a home must be in the top 25% on presentation and the bottom 25% on price against the actives. Both levers, not one.
Recommended List Price
Yard cured: $399,900
Defensible range: $395,000–$409,000
Positioned $/sf: ~$230 — in line with the no-view twin, well below the view closings.
Presentation: As-is, the yard puts us in the bottom tier — and there is no view to compensate. New sod is what moves us into contention.
Price: The identical no-view twin is clearing at $399,900. With the yard cured we price alongside it; the yard issue means we cannot expect a premium over it.
Sod vs. Discount — The Net to Sally
The choice is not "spend money or don't." It is "spend a little now, or give away more at closing."
Path A: Cure the Yard
List ~$399,900. Expected close in the low-to-mid $390,000s. Sod cost is low single-thousands.
Path B: Sell As-Is
With a visibly distressed yard, no view, and a twin already at $399,900, we would price below the twin (~$385,000) and still absorb buyer repair credits — a net closer to the high-$370,000s.
The gap between the two paths is roughly $15,000–$20,000 in Sally's pocket, against a few thousand in sod. The math favors curing the yard.
Lease Analysis — The Parallel Track
If Sally prefers to hold, the lease market in this section is active and shallow on inventory.
Closed leases, subject size band:
The two identical-size closings bracket the range. The no-view twin leased at $3,350 — but a year ago; the most recent 1,736 sf closing (May 2026) came in at $2,845 as the market softened. Current market sits between.
Lease Recommendation
Yard Cured
$2,950/mo
Realistic for a no-view 1,736 sf unit in today's softer lease market, presented move-in ready.
As-Is
~$2,800/mo
Expect slower absorption; a barren yard reads poorly in listing photos even to tenants.
The same sod investment that protects the sale also protects lease velocity and rate. The improvement earns its cost on either track.
A Note on the HOA Matter
There is active litigation between the HOA and Village Builders regarding a handful of common-area items the builder is to address.
Disclosable
It is disclosable, and we will disclose it plainly.
Non-Obstructing
It does not obstruct a sale or a lease, and it is not specific to this unit.
Framed Factually
Common-area items in resolution — it is a non-event in the transaction. We will have the documentation ready so it never becomes a surprise mid-deal.
Recommendation Summary
01
Cure First
New sod before going live, on either track. With no view to lean on, presentation is what keeps us competitive. Advise Sally that a drainage correction is what makes it last.
02
If Selling
List at $399,900 (range $395,000–$409,000), anchored to the identical no-view twin. Do not price for a premium that the market no longer awards this unit.
03
If Leasing
List at $2,950/mo, cured.
04
Disclose the HOA Matter
Proactively and factually — documentation ready before launch so it is never a mid-deal surprise.
The section is competitive, buyers are pricing carefully, and this unit competes on condition and price rather than view. Disciplined entry pricing and clean presentation are how we protect Sally's position.
Next Steps
1
Confirm Direction
Sale or lease — and authorize the sod installation.
2
Drainage Assessment
Obtain a quick drainage assessment for the long-term fix and neighbor documentation.
3
HOA Documentation
Assemble the HOA/builder documentation for disclosure.
4
Launch Marketing
Finalize pricing and launch the full Foreman Property Group marketing program.
Foreman Property Group · eXp Realty Luxury
Concierge representation across Lakeway, Rough Hollow, Bee Cave, and Lake Travis.